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Geomagnetic storms
http://vm.n6nu.org/bbs/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1081		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  deadsun [ Fri Oct 24, 2003 2:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Geomagnetic storms
Greetings folks,
I am sure that you may have heard about the Geomagnetic storm that is in progress as we speak; while I doubt that this will have much effect on most of us, some of us in the northern part of US and Europe might actually have a chance to see The Aurora Borealis. This scale gives an idea as to what may occur (this current storm is a G3). As is mentioned under the G3 description, the Kp index may reach as high as 7, which would put people near 50 deg. geomagnetic latitude within an area where they can see the aurora borealis.
Please view the supplimental links below for further information.

Tips on viewing auroras:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/

Static geomagnetic map:
http://www.nwra-az.com/ionoscint/maps/maplats.html

Clickable geomagnetic latitude map for North America:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/globeNW.html

For Europe:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Aurora/globeNE.html

3-day estimated planetary Kp index:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

NOAA POES auroral activity satellite page:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html
Author:  n6nu [ Fri Oct 24, 2003 3:01 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yeah, and it is going to screw up the whole shortwave radio stuff I am doing as my hobby. There is a world wide contest this weekend and it is going to buzz und fuzz all over the place - arghhhhh

N6NU
Author:  The Jargonaut [ Fri Oct 24, 2003 3:29 pm ]
Post subject: 
Nice find, Dead Sun. I love this kind of stuff. It will be interesting to see how far south the Aurora Borealis reaches. Hopefully it goes all the way down here to NC :D
Author:  Fluffy the Bunny [ Sat Oct 25, 2003 2:42 am ]
Post subject: 
The Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES looks like my eyes :lol:
Author:  deadsun [ Tue Oct 28, 2003 2:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
We have another one on the way...A large solar flare, the 3rd largest one ever (supposedly), just blew something in the neighborhood of 2 billion tons of material into space headed directly for earth, slated for arrival sometime within the next 2 days.
Here is the text from a space weather forecasting service located at
http://www.spacew.com/cme/index.html:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Event #49 - 28 October 2003

Issued: 16:30 UTC, 28 October 2003

SOURCE EVENT

Class X17.2 Flare in Region 486 at 11:10 UTC on 28 October 2003
Type II: 1250 km/sec
Estimated LASCO-derived Plane of Sky Velocity: 2125 km/sec

ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OF SHOCK AT EARTH

Estimated Impact Window: 00:00 UTC on 29 October to 21:00 UTC on 29 October
Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 08:00 UTC, 29 October 2003 (3 am EST on 29 October)
Estimated Shock Strength (0=Weakest, 9=Strongest): 9

Predicted Behavior of IMF at Shock Impact

At Shock Impact, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field is predicted to initially turn:
SOUTHWARD

IMPORTANT TIME OF ARRIVAL NOTICE FOR NORTH AMERICANS
The preferred time of arrival is ***TONIGHT***, TUESDAY NIGHT (before you go to bed that night) near or after 3 am Eastern Standard Time).
That's 2 am Central Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's 1 am Mountain Standard Time on TONIGHT.
That's MIDNIGHT Pacific Standard Time on TONIGHT.

EXPECT RESIDUAL ACTIVITY (LESS INTENSE) TOMMORROW NIGHT (WEDNESDAY, 29 OCT) AS WELL !

EVENT #49 NOTES:

This is the most energetic Earthward-directed event of the solar cycle.

SEVERE to MAJOR geomagnetic storming is expected to abruptly commence following the arrival of the shock front from this flare.

This flare was associated with a Ground-Level Event. It was also associated with very high energy protons at greater than 100 MeV (which are still climbing, over 5 hours after the event began). A magnetic crochet was observed over the daylit sections of the ionosphere. An exceptionally intense shortwave fadeout and polar cap absorption event are in progress. There are reports this event was observed in white-light. Intense radio bursts were associated with this event across the spectrum. The type II shock velocity is not representative of the observed velocity of this CME. The observed velocity as determined by SOHO was 2125 km/sec.

This event has the potential to produce the strongest geomagnetic storm since 1989. Auroral activity could become visible into the deep low latitude regions. This one is worth driving a good long distance over to find clear skies. It has better potential to produce low-latitude aurora than almost any other event observed in the past decade. Keep in mind that it is also possible the disturbance may not be nearly as geoeffective as many would like. It all depends on the character of the magnetic fields imbedded within the coronal mass ejection. However, we believe it will either be very large, or only modestly large in terms of its capacity to produce disturbed geomagnetic and auroral activity. We do not expect this disturbance to be small.

These predictions may be based on preliminary data and may be revised without warning. The predictions should not be used as a definitive indication of CME impact times or strengths and may frequently be in error. The proprietary methods used to estimate shock impact times are under continual development. Caution is advised.

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We may get that aurora yet.
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